Here's why I hollo upwards the electoral college -- amongst (crucially) winner-take-all pick inwards the states , which is nether laid on -- is a neat idea. (Even though I alive inwards Illinois.) Look at the map. (Source here , I flora it merely yesteryear google searching , thus no endorsement.)
With the electoral college , Governor Romney together with President Obama cause got to larn 51% majorities inwards plenty states to larn 270 votes , to win the white house.
Suppose nosotros had a pop vote instead. Now , instead of fighting for 51% of Ohio , President Obama could instead drive to heighten his 60% of New York together with Illinois to 70% , fifty-fifty if it meant 45% of Ohio. Or he could drive to heighten his 80% of New York metropolis together with Chicago to 90% , (made upwards number). He doesn't postulate to persuade people , actually , he merely needs to encourage to a greater extent than New Yorkers together with Chicagoans to plough out.
Instead of fighting for 51% of Ohio , Governor Romney could heighten his 60% of the due south to 70% , or heighten his 75% of Utah to 85% , or merely run to larn all those people out to the polls.
The Times bemoaned depression turnout inwards non-battleground states. If you lot hollo upwards at that topographic point is a lot of coin , obnoxious ads , together with people bothering you lot directly , merely imagine if bringing out to a greater extent than or less other voter inwards Utah could counter 1 to a greater extent than voter inwards New York.
But here's the existent issue. If you lot hollo upwards politics are polarized directly , merely imagine what they volition endure amongst a direct pop vote.
What policies volition the side yesteryear side Democrat advocate , if he tin give the axe win yesteryear deepening his margin inwards New York City rather than drive for 51% inwards Ohio , Virginia , Florida , Nevada? What policies volition the side yesteryear side Republican choose if the path to victory tin give the axe come upwards from bigger victories inwards Salt Lake metropolis together with the residual of the Red states rather than cause got to try for 51% of Ohio , Virginia , Florida , together with Nevada? What kinds of candidates volition parties select if these are the paths to victory?
You don't similar letting the Bush taxation cuts expire , raising the give charge per unit of measurement from 35 to 40%? That's nothing. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 policy to win New York , Chicago , Detroit , San Francisco together with LA , spell letting the residual of the province rot , would demo you lot what existent "class warfare" looks like! Wealth tax. 90% income tax. Forget the muddled insurance "reform" of Obamacare -- single-payer "free" wellness tending for all!
On the Republican side , the fragile trip the lite fantastic toe over "social policy" would probable disappear -- appeal to the base of operations for primaries , but but deed rapidly to the middle earlier the election together with thus don't create anything. If the Republicans tin give the axe win yesteryear going for 90% marjorities inwards rural areas together with reddish states , what volition give off to abortion , immigration , together with civil liberties? And taxes that hitting , oh , New York , Chicago , together with Detroit are a goodness bet.
This isn't almost beliefs. Our parties are coalitions. It's uncomplicated math of what policies get together a winning coalition.
And "polarization" is entirely the beginning. Look over again at that map. The blueish states are all together together with the reddish states are all together. We cause got polarization amongst stiff geographic concentration -- a poisonous combination.
There were rumblings almost secession inwards Texas over Obamacare. What would they cause got consider almost the existent "single-payer" organization that thus many on the left wanted? How would those people experience almost a 70% income tax?
Do you lot hollo upwards I'm beingness extreme? Look at Europe. England/Scotland , French/Flemish Kingdom of Belgium , Catalonia together with Basque Kingdom of Spain all desire to push clitoris apart. The mutual frigidity state of war is over. When you lot cause got polarization together with geographic concentration , why stick together? It already happened 1 time inwards the US.
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 organization inwards which each candidate has to larn a minor bulk inwards a large number of states is a goodness organization to croak along a polarized republic together. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 direct pop vote , inwards which 1 could win yesteryear getting huge majorities inwards to a greater extent than or less areas together with lose yesteryear huge majorities inwards other areas , is a disaster waiting to happen. We create this inwards sports , for similar goodness reasons: the the world serial winner is non merely the full number of runs inwards the regular season.
It looks possible that Gov. Romney volition lose the electoral college together with win the pop vote. One may forgive liberals bemoaning the electoral college when George W. Bush won. But I promise that people who limited reverence for the constitution together with the wisdom of the founding fathers volition create thus over again fifty-fifty if they lose. It's a goodness system. If they lose , Republicans postulate to detect a novel coalition that delivers minor , widespread majorities. We are non immune from the tides of history pulling other countries apart.
(PS , I know the consider is non master , but don't cause got the authoritative source. It's likely inwards the Federalist Papers somewhere. Feel gratuitous to comment.)
Update: Already at that topographic point are to a greater extent than or less neat comments.
As many betoken out , imagine a national recount inwards a unopen election. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 pop vote agency non entirely that every vote counts , it agency that every vote tin give the axe endure recounted , contested , together with challenged. Or , to a greater extent than ominously , imagine the adventure for shenanigans when every vote across the province counts the same.
This is truthful , but non a deep problem. If nosotros used the same score of safety together with applied scientific discipline for voting that nosotros require for , say , boarding an story or taking $40 out of an ATM , nosotros could cause got a secure together with accurate pop vote. If that were the entirely occupation organization , thus the electoral college together with province yesteryear province winner cause got all would cause got been real of import for 18th to 20th century voting applied scientific discipline , but no longer actually needed if nosotros tin give the axe always convey voting technolgy upwards to almost the 1990s.
The most of import betoken inwards the postal service is my fearfulness that a pop vote would Pb to to a greater extent than polarized candidates together with parties , together with that the polarization would pit portion against region. Colin , below , takes me to occupation on the median voter theorem , which says that nether to a greater extent than or less weather condition the resultant of a pop vote is the preference of the median voter.
Good point. But every theorem has assumptions. The median voter theorem assumes that political outcomes tin give the axe endure placed on a one-dimensional describe , together with that preferences are "single peaked ," people liking the resultant closest to their preference. Ask whatever libertarian where they stand upwards on the left-right continuum together with you lot larn a long lecture. Our parties are coalitions of real unusual bedfellows , non points on the median voter line.
My worries are almost outcomes where at that topographic point are many dimensions to what nosotros tending almost -- unusual policy , economical policy , surroundings , social questions. Most of all , my worry is geographic concentration -- reddish states vs blueish states , together with candidates who win yesteryear getting 90% majorities inwards 1 or the other. My worry is that the terms of getting a deeper bulk inwards your ain province is less than the terms of getting a slim bulk inwards a battleground state. Costs are absent inwards the median voter theorem.
So the median voter theorem doesn't actually response the question. But I'm non an proficient inwards voting theorems , thus I'm interested to listen from those who are what theorems create apply to this situation.
The betoken of an election is non actually almost selecting a winner together with a loser , or a laid of policies. It's almost edifice a consensus , that the losers agree to alive together nether the winner , together with drive over again side yesteryear side time. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 geographically broad laid of 51% wins amongst a pop loss is to a greater extent than of import to that finish than a 51% pop vote win based on overwhelming majorities inwards narrow areas , together with overwhelming losses inwards the residual of the country.
We had a civil war. Yes , nether the electoral college. It wasn't goodness enough. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 pop vote would cause got been worse.
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